World Trade Organization forecasts slowdown in global trade growth

The World Trade Organization forecast a slowdown in global trade growth next year as sharply higher energy and food prices and rising interest rates curb import demand. It also warned of a possible contraction if the war in Ukraine worsens. 

The Geneva-based trade body said on Wednesday that merchandise trade would increase by 3.5 per cent this year, up from its April estimate of three per cent. However, for 2023, it sees trade growth of just one per cent, compared with a previous forecast of 3.4 per cent.

WTO



Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told a news conference that the picture for 2023 has darkened considerably. She said if the war in Ukraine worsens, it will have a huge impact. Weather events hitting food-producing regions or damaging energy export infrastructure could further hit trade growth, along with weakness in China, where COVID-19 outbreaks have disrupted production.

The WTO chief said the world needed a more diversified and less concentrated base for the production of goods and services.