At current pace, India’s COVID-19 tally could hit 1 million in three days

India’s total coronavirus case tally is set to hit the 1 million mark by Friday if it continues to rise at the same pace as over the last one month, a Mint analysis based on the latest health ministry data showed. During this period, cases have been growing at an average daily growth rate of 3.5%, taking the total number past 900,000 on Tuesday.

Overall, the country has 311,565 active cases—or patients still under treatment—as of Tuesday morning, while 23,727 deaths have been attributed to the infection. Active cases rose 20% in the last seven days, nearly in line with the week-ago period (30 June to 7 July). The seven-day spike in deaths is 18%, compared to 19% in the preceding week. The seven-day rolling averages have been considered for these calculations since they minimize the effect of volatile and delayed reporting.

For over a month, new infections and deaths have been rising faster in India than in most other badly-hit countries. The country has the third highest number of active cases, after the United States and Brazil. The toll is the eighth highest in the world. Among high-fatality countries (more than 10,000 deaths), India has recorded the biggest spike in deaths as well as active cases over the past week.

With cases rising, India’s health facilities and workforce continue to be under severe strain. The risk of further spread is higher now as the economy has started to reopen and most public movement is allowed.

Among states, Maharashtra (10,482), Delhi (3,411), Gujarat (2,055), Tamil Nadu (2,032) and West Bengal (956) have reported the most deaths. These states together account for 80% of all covid-related deaths in India so far. However, only two of them, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, have seen a bigger spike than the national average in the last seven days.

Of the 12 states with the most active cases, Assam, Karnataka and Bihar have reported the biggest percentage jumps in deaths as well as active cases in this period, based on the seven-day rolling averages.

It is important that information quality on cases and passings change across nations and districts as a result of variables, for example, contrasts in testing gauges, and in conventions being followed for recording covid-related passings. For instance, the ascent



in cases in Telangana as of late may just mirror an announcing impact—it inclined up testing after it was scrutinized for not testing enough. 

Be that as it may, Telangana stays one of the states with the least tests per million populace. Among states with in excess of 10,000 cases up until now, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh have directed the most tests per million populace according to the most recent information, and Telangana and Bihar the least, information gathered by The Hindu appeared. 

Among the 15 areas with the most elevated number of new cases over the most recent 48 hours, the greatest rate spikes were accounted for by East Godavari in Andhra Pradesh (24%), Bengaluru in Karnataka (17%), and Solapur in Maharashtra (17%). In supreme numbers, Thane and Pune in Maharashtra and Bengaluru in Karnataka detailed the greatest increment in cases during this period, information ordered by howindialives.com last night appears.

So far, at least 479 out of over 700 districts in India have had at least one covid-related death. Mumbai (5,335 deaths) has reported the most, followed by Thane (1,693), Ahmedabad (1,522), Chennai (1,278), and Pune (1,155). Kolkata in West Bengal, Solapur, Jalgaon, and Aurangabad in Maharashtra, and Bengaluru in Karnataka are the other districts with more than 300 deaths. This list does not include Delhi, where the government does not provide district-wise data. State-level data shows Delhi (3,411 deaths) has the second-worst toll after Mumbai.

The number of coronavirus infections is likely to keep increasing in the coming days, with India testing more samples per day than earlier in the outbreak. According to the Indian Council for Medical Research, nearly 12.1 million samples have been tested as of Monday, compared to 10.2 million samples a week ago.

India has reported 906,752 coronavirus cases in all since the beginning of the outbreak in late January. Out of this, 63%, or 571,459, had been discharged by Tuesday, as compared to 51% a month ago. India’s case fatality rate—2.6 deaths per 100 infections—is lower than the global average of 4.4% at the moment.

Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 13 million, including 570,000 deaths and more than 7.2 million recoveries (55%).