COVID-19 pandemic may be extinguished in India around mid-September, claims mathematical model-based analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic may be over in India around mid-September, claim two public health experts from the health ministry who used a mathematical model-based analysis to draw this projection. The analysis shows that when the number of infected becomes equal to those removed from circulation by recovery and death, the coefficient will reach the 100 per cent threshold and the epidemic will be "extinguished".

The analysis, published in the online journal Epidemiology International, has been done by Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy director General (Public Health) in the DGHS, and Rupali Roy, Deputy Assistant Director (Leprosy) DGHS in the health ministry.

They



used the Bailey's mathematical model to draw the projection. This stochastic mathematical mode takes into consideration the distribution of the total size of an epidemic, involving both infection and removal.

The model employed was of the 'continuous infection' type, according to which infected individuals continue as sources of infection until removed from circulation by recovery or death.

In this, the removal rate is worked out after calculating the percentage of removed persons in the infected population. Further, regression analysis has been done, to get the results regarding relationship between the total infection rate and the total recovery rate.