SUTRA consortium research says, ‘Omicron peak to cross by February 15’

Several Indian States including Telangana must expect to cross the peak in daily Covid infections driven by the Omicron variant in the third wave, in the coming days.

The daily Covid positive cases are expected to peak anytime soon and could continue to last for a week or 10 days before the growth of infections stop, the latest analysis by mathematicians from the renowned SUTRA consortium, on Sunday said.

The researchers from the SUTRA consortium, who had rightly projected that hospitalisations during the third wave will be less severe when compared to the Delta second wave, have reiterated that there was no need for people to panic.

“We have been consistently advising State governments and policymakers not to panic because Omicron driven third wave will see fewer hospitalisations when compared to Delta. 

There are indications that daily Covid infections will peak anytime now in Telangana and at the most, it could perhaps carry on for 1 week or 10 days. By February 15, everybody will realise that they have crossed the peak of the third wave in Telangana and many other Indian States,” distinguished Professor, IIT-Hyderabad, Dr M Vidyasagar, who is part of the SUTRA Consortium, told media.

While it’s not possible to pin-point or project the exact day when the third wave will come to an end, the signs and ongoing trends, however, were very



encouraging, Dr Vidyasagar, who holds the National Science Chair, Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), Department of Science and Technology (DST), pointed out.

“By February 15, we all will realise that the peak of the Covid third wave has been crossed in Telangana and a few other States. The present trend is indicating that by the end of February, the third Covid wave should have reached its last stages. From the beginning, we have been consistently maintaining that the third wave will not be severe and hospitalisations will be manageable,” Dr Vidyasagar said.

The senior researcher pointed out that once there is a clear sign of a reduction in Covid infections, the State governments can start planning on reopening schools. “There is no point in keeping government schools closed. If parents are not comfortable, then let them not send their children to schools. However, governments should consider the opening of schools once the infections start dropping,” he said.

Another member of the SUTRA Consortium and Professor, IIT-Kanpur, Dr Manindra Agrawal said that people will learn to live with Covid. “If we wish to avoid infection to students, colleges will have to be shut down forever. Corona is not going anywhere and we will have to learn to live with it. No matter when schools are reopened, students will get infected and carry it home. There is, unfortunately, no way to avoid it,” Dr Manindra added.