Monsoon likely to hit Telangana by June 8

The first monsoon showers to drench Telangana are likely to arrive between June 8 and 16, according to the monsoon forecasting model developed by scientists from Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research (PIK), a German-government funded research institute.

Climate researcher from PIK, Prof Elena Surovyatkina, who has been issuing monsoon forecasts 40 days in advance for the central part of India in the area of Eastern Ghats since 2016, said the date of monsoon onset for Telangana is between June 8 and 16.

The German researcher pointed out that the onset of monsoons depends a lot on cyclones in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Although the Eastern Ghats and Telangana, are neighbouring regions, there is a considerable difference in the interplay of the two branches of monsoons i.e. one from the Arabian Sea and another from the Bay of Bengal in these regions.

“Some years, the onset of monsoon appears at the same date in these two areas, while in others, it appears with a difference of 6 to10 days. Such a difference might be caused by the simultaneous appearance of two cyclones in the Arabian Sea and in the Bay of Bengal, which prevent the



advance of monsoon for several days. Another reason might be an anticyclone on the north of the Arabian Sea, which decelerates the turning of the monsoon winds in the Bay of Bengal toward Indian subcontinent,” Prof Elena said.

These synoptic events are impossible to predict well in advance and it could be forecasted near the date of its appearance only and that’s why the forecast in Telangana region is challenging, she said.

“Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) tracks cyclones perfectly that helps me update a monsoon onset date in June. We are collaborating with IMD and our forecasts complement each other. We are working together to improve climate resilience by building new capacities via the early forecast of monsoon,” she said.

Prof Elena is part of the International Climate Initiative that is supported by German Federal Ministry for Environment and Nature Conversation aimed at building Climate Capacities in India with Telangana as a case study, which was launched in PIK. The Chairman for Indo-German Climate Research Project is TRS MLA from Vemulwada, Ramesh Chennamaneni.