Coronavirus could kill 45,000,000 and infect 60 per cent of global population

Experts believe each person that tests positive with the virus will go on to infect 2.5 more people, meaning such a high ‘attack rate’ could infect 60 per cent of the world’s population if it is not controlled. Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, warned those infected who have never visited China could be just the ‘tip of the iceberg’. His warning came as the World Health Organisation (WHO) called the virus, which has been officially named COVID-19, ‘the worst enemy you can ever imagine’ and that it poses a greater global threat than terrorism.

WHO officials urged the world to ‘wake up’ and be as aggressive as possible in efforts to tackle the spread of the virus which has so far infected more than 44,600 people and killed at least 1,100. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said it would still be another 18 months until a vaccine is ready. He said: ‘To be honest, a virus is more powerful in creating political, social and economic upheaval than any terrorist attack. It’s the worst enemy you can imagine.’ Dr Ghebreyesus added that 99 per cent of cases are in China, meaning the virus ‘remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world’. Ahead of the WHO meeting in Geneva, Professor Leung told The Guardian if the death rate reaches just one per cent, the death toll would still be huge.

The world population stands at more than 7 billion, meaning the virus could infect at least 4 billion people and if



one per cent of those die, the death toll would stand at 45 million. He told the WHO the main concern experts are facing is how to determine the scale of the crisis and work out whether China’s drastic measures have been successful and if so, other countries should be advised to act in the same way. Professor Leung, who played a crucial role in research into the Sars crisis between 2002-2003, warned in January that China was on the verge of an outbreak. He wrote in a paper in the Lancet that outbreaks were potentially ‘growing exponentially’ in Chinese cities and that ‘independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable’. The warnings come as the UK confirmed more cases of the virus, after two inmates at Bullingdon prison, in Oxfordshire, tested positive. One of the inmates who is suspected to be infected, was understood to have been transferred from a Thai jail.

So far eight people in the UK have been officially diagnosed with the virus and were all taken ill in York and Brighton. British businessman Steve Walsh, 53, is thought to have unwittingly infected at least 11 people over the past two weeks in multiple countries. He reportedly caught the virus at a conference in Singapore before returning to Britain and shooting off for a four day skiing holiday in the French Alps. Mr Walsh, from Brighton, is believed to have passed the bug to five Britons at the Contamines-Montjoie resort, including a nine-year-old child. He has now recovered and says his thoughts are with those who have fallen ill.