Oil prices at four-year high, cross $80 per barrel

LONDON — Oil prices jumped more than 2 percent to a four-year high on Monday after OPEC and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production.

Benchmark Brent crude hit its highest since November 2014 at $80.94 per barrel, up $2.14 or 2.7 percent, before easing to around $80.75 by 1150 GMT. US light crude was $1.25 higher at $72.03.

“This is the oil market’s response to the OPEC+ group’s refusal to step up its oil production,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Commodity traders Trafigura and Mercuria said on Monday that Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and pass $100 in early 2019, as markets tighten once US sanctions against Iran are fully implemented from November.

JPMorgan said US sanctions on Iran could lead to a loss of 1.5 million barrels per day, while Mercuria warned that as



much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as well as top producer Russia has been discussing raising output to counter falling supply from Iran, although no decision has been made public yet.

A source familiar with OPEC discussions told Reuters on Friday that OPEC and other producers have been discussing the possibility of raising output by 500,000 bpd.

“We expect that those OPEC countries with available spare capacity, led by Saudi Arabia, will increase output but not completely offset the drop in Iranian barrels,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD bank.

US commercial crude oil inventories are at their lowest since early 2015 and although US oil production is near a record high of 11 million bpd, subdued US drilling points towards a slowdown in output.