National Security Advisor Mike Flynn came out on Wednesday to make a brief statement putting Iran “on notice.” Flynn complained about Iran’s ballistic missile tests, about a Yemeni Houthi attack on a Saudi naval vessel in the Red Sea (maintaining that it was ‘Iran-backed’) and about “weapons transfers” and “support for terrorism.”
The Iranian press pointed out that that the JCPOA or nuclear deal only bans ballistic missiles designed to carry a nuclear warhead, and said that Iran had done no such thing. The ballistic missiles it has been testing don’t have warhead capability and so are not covered in the JCPOA. Visiting former French prime minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, had affirmed the nuclear deal but warned Iran to be meticulous in observing it.
The Iranian press, at least, reported that Ayrault, now in Tehran, was not bothered by the ballistic missile test.
Although the Saudi government and his allies view the Zaydi Houthi movement of northern Yemen as an Iranian puppet, there is not very much convincing evidence
of such a relationship. Rather, the Houthis are indigenous and have received, if any, very little monetary support from Iran.
Inasmuch as Trump supports Russian efforts in Syria, and inasmuch as those efforts are aided by Hizbullah, the Lebanese party-militia, Trump is de facto allied with Hizbullah. Likely that is the group to which Flynn refers when he speaks of Iranian weapons transfer.
There was no indication that Flynn had an actual war plan for Iran, and apparently the career Pentagon personnel were livid that Trump would have Flynn announce a major strategy statement on matters of war and peace, but have no specific planning in place.
Trump seems to be the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt, who is said to have quipped, ‘Speak softly and carry a big stick.’ Trump and his people speak loudly but carry a tiny stick.
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has already accused Trump of being an amateur and a bull in the china shop. Iran’s government has ceased issuing visas to Americans, in retaliation for Trump’s Muslim ban.