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More rain likely from July 8

Mon 05 Jul 2021, 12:08:05
New Delhi: The Ministry of Earth Sciences on Sunday said the Monsoon, which slowed down over the last fortnight, is expected to revive from July 8. The forecast models show signs of increasing rain activity in South, west coast and East Central India since then.

"Monsoon Update: @moesgoi models show signs of revival- increasing rains in South, west coast & East Central India from 8 July,” , M Rajeevan, Secretary of Ministry of Earth Sciences said. Monsoon rain over the country will also remain extremely subdued till then.

"Models also make an early indication of formation of a weather system over BoB by12th & subsequent active monsoon phase," Rajeevan, who has been researching the Southwest Monsoon for more than three decades, tweeted.

After a good spell of rain in the first two and half weeks of June, the Southwest Monsoon has not advanced further since June 19.

Delhi, Haryana, parts of west Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, west Rajasthan are yet to see the arrival of the monsoon. Asked as to when the monsoon is expected to cover the remaining parts including Delhi, he said it could be around July 11.

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) senior scientist RK Jenamani on Sunday said due to western disturbances, the monsoon is not coming till July 7-8.



“Weak monsoon will continue in parts of country till July 08. “Though Delhi witnessed a brief spell of rain, the temperature will once again go up. Western disturbances have moved away and monsoon is not coming till July 7-8. Break or weak monsoon will continue in parts of country till July 8,” Jenamani added.

A study paper of the MoES said that monsoon breaks tend to have a longer life-span than active spells. While, almost 80% of the active spells lasted 3–4 days, only 40% of the break spells were of such short duration. A small fraction (9%) of active spells and 32% of break spells lasted for a week or longer. While active events occurred almost every year, not a single break occurred in 26% of the years considered. On an average, there are 7 days of active and break events from July through August. There are no significant trends in either the days of active or break events.

In its forecast for the July, IMD said the country as a whole will witness good rainfall this month.  However, parts of north India, some parts of south peninsula, central, east and northeast India could witness rainfall in the category of normal to below normal.  It added that the conditions are not favourable for the monsoon's progress till July 7 due to the lack of a weather system.




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