After successive defeats in the assembly and MCD elections, a united opposition will now focus on the Presidential elections to be held in July. There are three names that the joint opposition has floated as a presidential candidate- Sharad Yadav, Sharad Pawar and a second term for Pranab Mukherjee.
To elect the President, the vote value needed would be 549,442. Currently the BJP and its allies including the Shiv Sena have a vote value of 5,31,954. The total vote pool of the Shiv Sena is at 25,893.
The Congress headed by Sonia Gandhi is taking the lead and uniting the opposition. The party according to sources has also reached out to the Shiv Sena for support. The Shiv Sena has been proposing the names of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and recently Sharad Pawar. Bhagwat has however ruled himself out of the race.
Sources say that the Shiv Sena which wants to embarrass the BJP is likely to vote for the candidate fielded by the opposition. However it is unlikely to agree with the candidature of Sharad Yadav and Pranab Mukherjee. If the joint opposition okays the name of Pawar then there is a better chance of getting the Shiv Sena's support.
The Presidential elections to be held in July will be the first big test for the united opposition. Plans
of a grand alliance involving all opposition parties have been afloat since the elections in the five states were completed in March. Bagging the Shiv Sena on its side would be a major victory for the opposition.
Can BJP do without the Shiv Sena?
If the Shiv Sena decides to support the opposition, then the BJP may have trouble appointing a candidate of its choice. The total vote pool of the Shiv Sena is at 25,893.
If the Shiv Sena does not support the BJP, then the party would fall short by 20,000 votes. In the 288 member Maharashtra assembly the BJP has 122 MLAs apart from the support of 12 others. The SS has 63 MLAs. The value of a vote of an MLA in Maharashtra is 175. This means the value of votes of the BJP with the support of the Shiv Sena is at 34,475. The vote value of the Congress and its allies is at 15,575. If the SS decides to support the Congress then the vote value would be at 26,000.
From Maharashtra there are 67 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 19 in the Rajya Sabha. The vote value of each MP is at 708. The BJP and SS together have 52 MPs and the total vote share is at 36,816. The Congress and allies from Maharashtra have a total value vote of 10,620. If the SS decides to go with the Congress then the vote value would be at 25,488.